Eighty-six EU policy options for reducing imported deforestation

•From 1,141 proposals, we identify 86 EU policy options for reducing deforestation•We assess the political feasibility to barriers•Many lack a proven theory of change trade-off between and potential impact Images distressed orangutans in Indonesia forest fires Brazil have increased public awareness deforestation across globe. Still, continues more or less unabated, driven by demand forest-risk commodities, such as palm, soy, cocoa, beef. What can European Union (EU) other consumer regions do address this problem? Here present tropical deforestation, identified through review gray literature stakeholder consultation responses. Analyzing these, show that are politically feasible policies tend weaker change—the causal chain which deforestation—setting up impact. However, there exceptions, mandatory due diligence, appear feasible. Through mixing working with key stakeholders, supply chains, producer regions, these barriers be overcome. Despite importance conservation achieving global sustainability goals role commodity trade driving country imported received limited scholarly attention. Drawing on Commission consultation, deforestation. We map “theory change” (TOC)—the deforestation—for each options, identifying impacts: information-based cooperative policies, dominate our sample, typically exhibit high feasibility, but mostly convincing TOCs, while stringent regulatory market-based generally lower feasibility. propose three principles overcoming feasibility-impact dilemma: (1) build (2) use mixes, (3) work regions. About 200 million hectares forests—just under tenth total area—have been lost tropics since turn century,1Hansen M.C. Potapov P.V. Moore R. Hancher M. Turubanova S.A. Tyukavina A. Thau D. Stehman S.V. Goetz S.J. Loveland T.R. et al.High-resolution maps 21st-century cover change.Science. 2013; 342: 850-853Crossref PubMed Scopus (4933) Google Scholar even greater areas degraded.2IPCCClimate Change Land: An IPCC Special Report Climate Change, Desertification, Land Degradation, Sustainable Management, Food Security, Greenhouse Gas Fluxes Terrestrial Ecosystems.in: Shukla P.R. Skea J. Calvo Buendia E. Masson-Delmotte V. Pörtner H.-O. Roberts D.C. Zhai P. Slade Connors S. van Diemen Ferrat Haughey Luz Neogi Pathak Petzold Portugal Pereira Vyas Huntley Kissick K. Belkacemi Malley Intergovernmental Panel 2019Google As result, is second-largest source greenhouse gas emissions, after fossil fuels,2IPCCClimate primary driver terrestrial biodiversity loss.3IPBESSummary policymakers assessment report ecosystem services Science-Policy Platform Biodiversity Ecosystem Services..in: Díaz Settele Brondízio E.S. Ngo H.T. Guèze Agard Global Assessment Services. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, Germany2019: 1-56https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3553579Google The Brazil,4Berenguer Carvalho N. Anderson L.O. Aragão L.E.O.C. França F. Barlow Improving spatial-temporal analysis Amazonian fires.Glob. Chang. Biol. 2020; 27: 469-471Crossref (5) Scholar,5Barlow Berenguer Carmenta Clarifying Amazonia’s burning crisis.Glob. 26: 319-321Crossref (88) were particularly critical 2019–2020, again put spotlight plight increasing issue world. Protecting remaining forests meeting several United Nations Development Goals (SDGs),6Seymour Busch Why Forests? Now?: Science, Economics, Politics Tropical Forests Change. Center Development, 2016Google forests, among services, provide climate mitigation, water circulation, regulation, protection, livelihood support. Several international agreements aim reduce from SDG target 15.2 “halt restore degraded substantially increase afforestation reforestation globally” New York Declaration Paris Agreement. Unfortunately, none pledges track met.7NYDF PartnersProtecting Restoring Forests: A Story Large Commitments yet Limited Progress.2019Google private efforts, rates remain high—or accelerated—as new frontiers opening Africa parts Latin America previously spared deforestation.7NYDF Scholar,8FAOGlobal Forest Resources 2020. FAO, 2020Google Production agricultural commodities main tropics. Expanding cropland, pasture, plantations account approximately 60% loss.9Pendrill Persson U.M. Godar Kastner T. Deforestation displaced: prospects transition.Environ. Res. Lett. 2019; 14: 055003Crossref (52) This expansion is, turn, (FRCs) consumers rapidly growing urban countries production markets.10DeFries R.S. Rudel Uriarte Hansen population growth twenty-first century.Nat. Geosci. 2010; 3: 178-181Crossref (760) leading embodied trade,11Pendrill Moran Schmidt Wood Agricultural forestry drives large share emissions.Glob. Environ. 56: 1-10Crossref (86) most FRCs, per-capita consumption levels, presence food feed industries.12IDHBager S.L. Schwöppe C. Hoang M.L. Swee C.W. Olesen A.S. Lan C.C. Sleurink Urgency Action Tackle Deforestation: Fostering Agriculture. Prepared IDH FACTS Consulting, COWI A/S AlphaBeta Singapore. - Trade Initiative, Utrecht, Netherlands2020Google From 2015 2017, imports FRCs associated an estimated annual risk 190,000 ha.13Pendrill Risk Embodied Consumption Forestry Commodities 2005-2017 (Version 1.0) [Data Set]. Zenodo, 2020https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4250532Google was largely import palm oil, soybeans, products, coffee handful (Figure 1). For some constitute trade, especially cocoa coffee, than 50% production, also beef, rubber, wood pulp.12IDHBager Although EU's relative many has declined recent years—in part Asian market, China—EU absolute numbers.12IDHBager does not direct competence currently no specifically addresses caused FRCs.14Pirlot Delreux Farcy multi-sectoral multi-level approach sustainable management.in: Adelle Biedenkopf Torney External Environmental Policy. Springer International Publishing, 2018: 167-187Crossref only partially covered Timber Regulation (EUTR), Law Enforcement Governance (FLEGT) Plan related voluntary partnership (VPAs) countries, illegally harvested wood. Renewable Energy Indirect Use Directives indirectly targeting bioenergy demand. supports efforts REDD+ (reducing emissions degradation) activities. There however, ongoing process formulate deforestation-specific policy. began 2008, when Commission's (EC) first communication adopted,15European CommissionCommunication Parliament, Council, Economic Social Committee Regions: Addressing Challenges Degradation Biodiversity. Publications Office Union, 2008Google guiding ECs though constituting official mandate act. followed studies,16COWI, Ecofys, MilieuOlesen Bager Brack Jespersen M.S. D.S. Wähler L.C. Feasibility Study Options Step against Deforestation. 2018Google Scholar, 17Cuypers Geerken Gorissen L. Lust Peters G. Karstensen al.The Impact Comprehensive Analysis 2013Google 18Devriendt Lemeire Cuypers Prieler Fisher Proposal Specific Community Policy , Legislative Measures Other Initiatives Further Consideration Commission. 19Devriendt Identification Critical Areas where Policies Legislation Could Be Reviewed. processes, workshops,20European CommissionPublic Consultation Stepping Degradation. Commission, 2019https://ec.europa.eu/environment/forests/deforestation.htmGoogle Scholar,21European (2017). Conference Illegal Logging 21-23 June 2017. In pp. 1–16. https://ec.europa.eu/environment/forests/conf_21_06_2017.htmGoogle resulted Roadmap Deforestation22European CommissionRoadmap. Ref. Ares(2018)6516782. 2018https://ec.europa.eu/environment/forests/deforestation.htmGoogle updated communication.23European CommissionStepping Protect Restore World’s Forests. 2019https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?qid=1565272554103&uri=CELEX:52019DC0352Google 2019, Council adopted conclusions future actions resulting consumption, essential milestone if how regulate topic. These gave EC develop revise existing ones its affecting including, others, consumers, agriculture, development cooperation, research, finance. clear sense direction member states (MSs) considering unilateral steps particular commodity, industry, geography. France24Ministère de la Transition Écologique SolidaireStratégie nationale lutte contre déforestation importée: 2018-2030 (National strategy combat deforestation: 2018-2030). Ministère Solidaire, 2018https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/sites/default/files/2018.11.14_SNDI_0.pdfGoogle Germany25Bundesministerium für Ernährung und LandwirtschaftLeitlinien der Bundesregierung zur Förderung von entwaldungsfreien Lieferketten Agrarrohstoffen. Bundesministerium Landwirtschaft, 2016https://www.bmel.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/_Wald/leitlinien-entwaldungsfreie-lieferketten.htmlGoogle broad plans addressing 2020, Parliament published own-initiative legislative calling take action deforestation,26Burkhardt Motion Resolution recommendations legal framework halt reverse EU-driven (2020/2006(INL)).Eur. Parliam. : 1-10https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/A-9-2020-0179_EN.html#title1Google following added-value (EAVA) analyzing four demand-side at level.27Heflich Legal Framework Halt Reverse EU-Driven Added Value Assessment. 2020https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2020/654174/EPRS_STU(2020)654174_EN.pdfGoogle follow-up communication,23European took place will into investigating various measures degradation consumption. expected during 2021, eventual adoption proposal regulation taking thereafter. With firmly set agenda, “policy window”28Kingdon J.W. Agendas, Alternatives Public Policies. Little, Brown, 1984Google governments commodity-driven so far attention,29Schilling-Vacaflor Lenschow Bringing State back in: exploring environmental approaches governing Brazil-Europe soy chain.in: Association. (IPPA) Conference, 2019: 1-21Google despite contribution internationally traded overall deforestation.9Pendrill Scholar,11Pendrill paper aims fill research gap inform MSs First, option space compiling extensive database over 1,100 proposals consultations literature. Using proponent, instrument type, actor typology (see Experimental procedures Figure 5 details), consolidate smaller unique options. Second, based two determinants impact: (TOC) 2). Understanding crucial facilitating transitions.30Fesenfeld L.P. Wicki Sun Y. Bernauer packaging make system transformation feasible.Nat. Food. 1: 173-182Crossref (16) Scholar,31Jewell Cherp On mitigation pathways: it too late keep warming below 1.5°C?.Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Clim. 11: 1-12Crossref (30) Here, empirically different feasibility:32Skodvin Exploring Notion Political CICERO, 2007https://pub.cicero.oslo.no/cicero-xmlui/bitstream/handle/11250/192286/CICERO_Working_Paper_2007-03.pdfGoogle Scholar,33Majone notion feasibility?.Eur. Polit. 1975; 259-274Crossref (58) advocacy, support actors; institutional setting, captures complexity defining adopting given policy; costs, expresses magnitude distribution societal costs implementation. TOC explains why intervention achieve change, detailing “who what differently why.”34Martius Angelsen Larson A.M. Thuy P.T. Sonwa D.J. Belcher B. Pathway Is viable change?.in: Transforming REDD+: Lessons Directions. Research, 17-28Google clearly elucidated improves chances affects deforestation35Garcia C.A. Savilaakso Verburg R.W. Gutierrez Wilson Krug C.B. Sassen Robinson B.E. Moersberger H. Naimi transition human affair.One Earth. 2: 417-428Abstract Full Text PDF (11) helping “identify assumptions, enabling factors stumbling blocks,”34Martius builds legitimacy engaging stakeholders discussion best end.35Garcia Scholar,36Sullivan Stewart Who owns change?.Evaluation. 2006; 12: 179-199Crossref (51) draw upon theoretical empirical evidence underlying facilitate By contrasting assessments, impactful end discussing implications findings agenda reviewing collected data, individual forward five types proponents 3). grouping instrument, summarize proposed anywhere 1 60 times (Tables 1, 2, frequently introduce diligence companies importing multistakeholder fora, partnerships, processes; capacity building good governance countries; access technology FRC producers.Table 1Political targetedPolicy proposalNo.A/I/CForest-risk producersIP1: Advocate reduced amount efficiency production21/3/3Producer governmentsIG1: Identify hotspots31/3/3IG2: Monitor jurisdictional/national progress toward zero deforestation21/3/3IG3: “Carding” exporting EU, issuing yellow red cards failing act effectively illegal behavior chain21/2/3Supply-chain actorsIS1: Encourage reporting, transparency, disclosure information242/3/3IS2: corporate commitments, pledges, initiatives deforestation61/3/3IS3: Define industry-wide criteria, “sustainable” practices141/3/3IS4: sourcing guidelines, certification, joint/individual commitments202/3/3IS5: residues, waste, by-products reduction (food) waste31/2/3IS6: Promote FRCs11/3/3IS7: Develop blacklist supply-chain operators conforming criteria31/3/3IS8: whitelist suppliers who demonstrate adhere practices sustainability21/3/3IS9: labels origin, forest/carbon footprint, deforestation-free, etc.121/2/3ConsumersIC1: Increase citizens' meat promote local, vegetable-based diets282/3/3IC2: waste61/3/3IC3: policies11/3/3IC4: nudging, choice architecture, behavioral consumption41/3/3EU governmentsIE1: knowledge, data collection313/3/3IE2: criteria procurement dietary guidelines142/3/3IE3: information, sharing land deforestation101/3/3IE4: Provide information transparency agreements21/2/3IE5: commitments (e.g., NDCs, nationally determined contribution) REDD+)71/2/1Finance actorsIF1: traceability financial flows involved e.g., using monitoring reporting tools61/3/3IF2: institutions21/3/3IF3: standards actors71/3/3IF4: standards, responsible investment, divestment, green products101/3/3Summary classified information-based, targeted. Numbers (No.) indicate number sample. displayed (1, low; medium; 3, feasibility) determinants: advocacy (A), setting (I), cost (C). Open table tab Table 2Political producersCP1: technology, technical support, training better practices, intensification, climate-smart management433/3/3CP2: finance credit lines81/3/3CP3: Support alternative livelihoods systems182/3/3CP4: scale-up conflict resolution, community monitoring51/3/3Producer governmentsCG1: governance, coordination, enforcement laws regulations593/3/2CG2: restoration building, monitoring, collection, etc.363/3/3CG3: agriculture assistance [ODA])131/3/3CG4: tax tariff reform FRCs61/3/2CG5: Make ODA mechanisms conditional targets31/3/2CG6: establishment tenure rights, free, prior, informed consent (FPIC)202/3/3Supply-chain actorsCS1: uptake implementation deforestation)222/3/3CS2: roadmaps81/3/3CS3: transparency61/3/3CS4: improve business models, product service systems, platforms81/3/3CS5: compliance guidelines41/3/3CS6: industry etc.81/3/3EU governmentsCE1: Mainstream concerns synergy areas323/2/3CE2: Improve FLEGT, RED I II) deforestation212/3/3CE3: Formulate implement plan (on agriculture)81/3/3CE4: Strengthen cross-ministerial cooperation111/2/3Finance actorsCF1: investment environmental, social, [ESG] criteria) internal external compliance31/3/3CF2: innovative including blending instruments public-private, results-based, up-front financing142/3/3CF3: insurance, guarantees, reinsurance de-risk investments use91/3/3MultistakeholderCM1: dialogue cooperation countries293/3/3CM2: Alignment harmonization international, national private-sector definitions, targets commitments92/3/3CM3: processes (jurisdictional roundtables, moratoria, etc.)613/3/3CM4: Facilitate collection stakeholders152/3/3CM5: certifications robust auditing